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Executive SummaryUN Global Risk Report 2024
UN Global
Risk Report
About

Further information on the UN Global Risk Report

Learn more about how we define global risks and understand the methods behind risk identification, survey design, and scenario development. 

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Global Risk Definition
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Risk Identification Methodology
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Global Risk Survey Methodology
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Scenario Methodology
05
Additional RESOURCES

Global Risk Definition

“A global risk can be defined as an event or condition that would have a significant negative impact on a large portion of humanity and ecosystems.”

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Global Risk Definition
02
Risk Identification Methodology
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Global Risk Survey Methodology
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Scenario Methodology
05
Additional RESOURCES

Risk Identification Methodology

The information presented in this report is grounded in a perception study of 28 global risks, identified through a rigorous and structured process. This process began with an extensive literature review of over 40 well-known global risk reports, sourced from global, regional, and national levels, and authored by a diverse range of stakeholders, including the private sector, public sector, and civil society. This review resulted in the identification of more than 100 risks, which were then categorized using the STEEP framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political):

Societal

Risks that affect the stability, cohesion, and overall well-being of societies. These risks are often driven by factors such as inequality, public health challenges, and social unrest, and can lead to widespread disruptions in the social fabric.

Biorisks

The risk posed to human, animal, plant, or environmental health, by outbreaks of disease of natural, accidental, or deliberate origin.

Collapse of Social Cohesion

Heightened social discord, surge in violent criminal activities, victimization of minority groups, breaches of human rights, and, in the end, the eruption of violent confrontations.

Mass Movement of People

Large-scale movement of people driven by factors like economic pursuits, escaping poverty, violence, war, persecution, climate change, and natural disasters, encompassing both voluntary and forced movement.

New Pandemic

The global spread of a pathogen or variant that infects human populations with limited or no immunity through sustained and high transmissibility from person to person, overwhelming health systems with severe morbidity and high mortality.

Proliferation of Non-State Actors (incl. criminal and terrorist groups)

Widespread growth in the number, influence, and activities of entities that operate outside the control or governance of traditional nation-states, could include terrorist and criminal organizations exerting considerable influence in various sectors, beyond the conventional structures of national governments.

Rise in Inequalities

Rise in disparity in opportunity and access based on income, sex, age, disability, sexual orientation, race, class, ethnicity, religion, and capacity to use digital assets.

Technological

Risks that emerge from the development, deployment, and reliance on technology. These risks encompass issues related to the availability, security, and equity of technological infrastructure and services.

Breakdown in Cybersecurity

Widespread and systemic failures in safeguarding digital systems, infrastructure, networks, and data from unauthorized access, attacks, malicious use and exploitation.

Geoengineering Disasters

Large-scale manipulation of planetary processes to control and modify earth’s climate or weather.

Negative Outcomes of AI and Frontier Technologies

Adverse effects, whether intentional or unintentional, resulting from progress in AI and related technological capabilities—such as generative AI— on societies and ecosystems. These impacts may include, but are not limited to, increasing inequality, bias, conflicts and misinformation issues.

Technology-Driven Power Concentration

The growing centralization and consolidation of influence, control, and authority facilitated by advancements in technology, as well as the control over resources, influence and power that can be accumulated in the hands of private companies.

Environmental

Risks that arise from the degradation of natural ecosystems and changes in climate patterns, affecting the sustainability of life on Earth.

Inaction on Climate Change

Failure or reluctance of individuals, governments, or organizations to implement substantial measures or policies aimed at mitigating and adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change, such as rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and environmental degradation.

Large-Scale Natural Hazard Risks

Potential for widespread damage, disruption, or loss caused by changing meteorological conditions as well as natural phenomena like earthquakes and volcanic activities.

Large-Scale Pollution

Extensive and widespread contamination of air, water, or land, leading to significant demand for financial resources, human effort, and time to remediate. This includes forms of pollution such as ambient air pollution, chemical pollution, physical waste, or radioactive isotopes, as well as space waste and debris.

Rapid Decline in Biodiversity

Swift and significant reduction in the variety and abundance of species within a specific ecosystem or across the planet, often resulting from human activities, habitat destruction, pollution, and other factors.

Shortages of Natural Resources

Depletion of high-value natural resources like oil, gas, minerals and timber, as well as mismanagement and competition over diminishing renewable resources, such as land and water, aggravated by environmental degradation, population growth and climate change.

Space-Based Event

Natural or technological occurrences originating in or affecting outer space (e.g., solar flares, geomagnetic storms, or asteroid impacts) that have a significant and potentially severe impact on Earth or its systems, causing substantial disruptions to satellite communications, power grids, or other critical infrastructure on Earth.

Economic

Risks that impact the stability and growth of global economies. These risks are closely related to financial systems, markets, and the broader economy.

Economic Fragmentation

The breakdown of an economy into smaller, relatively independent and isolated components or segments, manifesting in the separation of markets, industries, or regions, leading to reduced integration and cohesion within the overall economic system.

Global Financial Crisis

Severe disruption in the international financial system characterized by widespread banking and financial sector distress, currency devaluations, and economic downturns affecting multiple countries or regions simultaneously.

Supply Chain Collapse

Collapse of availability of businesses, people and activities involved in the procurement, logistics, transformation and delivery of finished goods.

Sustained Global Economic Stagnation

Prolonged period of minimal or no growth in the worldwide economy, marked by sluggish or stagnant economic activity, high unemployment, limited expansion across multiple sectors, deepening inequalities and mounting pressures of indebtedness.

Widespread Debt Crisis

A significant number of entities, such as countries, regions, or sectors, facing a high level of financial distress due to an inability to meet their debt obligations. It can result from economic downturns, fiscal mismanagement, external shocks, or a combination of these factors.

Political

Threats that negatively impact geopolitical relations or undermine political stability.

Collapse of Multilateral Institutions

Weakening and degradation of organizations and their collective action to resolve problems that are bigger than their individual efforts could tackle (e.g., global challenges like climate change and health crises), despite being foundational pillars of the international system established in the post-WW2 era.

Collapse of Rule of Law and Massive Violations of Human Rights

Breakdown in international legal regimes and widespread disregard for basic human rights.

State Sovereignty Erosion

Breakdown or failure of a government or political system to fulfill its basic functions, such as maintaining law and order, providing essential services, or representing its citizens effectively.

Geopolitical Tensions

Significant changes in the global political landscape, involving alterations in power dynamics, alliances, and strategic interests among nations.

Large-Scale War

Conflict of significant magnitude involving widespread and substantial military engagements, potentially waged within a country or between nations or coalitions, with extensive geopolitical, economic, and societal consequences.

Mis- and Disinformation

False or misleading information, with misinformation being inaccuracies spread without harmful intent, and disinformation being intentionally false or deceptive information circulated with the aim of causing harm or manipulating perceptions.

Weapons of Mass Destruction

Atomic explosive weapons, radioactive material weapons, lethal chemical and biological weapons, and any weapons developed in the future which may have characteristics comparable in destructive effect to those of the atomic bomb or other weapons mentioned above. (UN Office for Disarmament Affairs, UN Regional Centre for Peace and Disarmament in Asia and the Pacific)

01
Global Risk Definition
02
Risk Identification Methodology
03
Global Risk Survey Methodology
04
Scenario Methodology
05
Additional RESOURCES

Global Risk Survey Methodology

The Global Risk Survey underpins the Global Risk Report, collecting data from 83 UN Member State representatives and 1,028 risk professionals globally.

Global risks are defined as events or conditions with significant negative impacts on a large portion of humanity and ecosystems.

The Global Risk Survey assessed 28 pivotal risks, categorized into Societal, Technological, Environmental, Economic, and Political (STEEP) domains. These risks were identified through literature reviews, expert consultations, and foresight exercises.

The survey targeted five main stakeholder groups: UN Member States, Civil Society Organizations, Private Sector Organizations, Risk Experts and Academia, and UN employees across all regions.

Respondents provided information on each of the 28 global risks byrating likelihood, imminence, severity, risk prioritization, and risk interconnections. Global Risk Preparedness was judged by the ability to identify, reduce, and mitigate risks.

The Global Risk Survey results underscore the importance of understanding risk perceptions and interconnections to inform effective risk governance and enhance global resilience.

01
Global Risk Definition
02
Risk Identification Methodology
03
Global Risk Survey Methodology
04
Scenario Methodology
05
Additional RESOURCES

Scenario Methodology

The four scenarios are based on the top 10 interconnected risks identified through the perception survey.

The scenarios follow a hybrid methodology incorporating three distinct approaches:
(1) Archetype Scenarios: To illustrate potential evolutions of the multilateral system in the future,
(2) Manoa Scenarios: To explore the dynamics and interactions between risks within each scenario,
(3) Wildcard Elements: To address risks identified in the survey as those for which the multilateral system is least prepared.

01
Global Risk Definition
02
Risk Identification Methodology
03
Global Risk Survey Methodology
04
Scenario Methodology
05
Additional RESOURCES