From Insights into Futures
Explore four future scenarios shaped by Global Vulnerabilities and varying levels of joint action - from Breakdown and Status Quo to Progress and Breakthrough.
The scenarios build from the top 10 global risks and what impacts that they might have on multilateral system preparedness.
LEVEL OF JOINT ACTIONBreakdown
Fragmented joint action exacerbates the cascading effects of natural hazard risks.
Status Quo
Uncoordinated joint action leads to uneven consequences after a global disinformation attack.
Progress
Improved joint action mitigates the impacts of a new pandemic outbreak.
Breakthrough
Strong joint action overcomes an acute global cybersecurity incident.
Breakdown
Fragmented and collapsing
Natural Hazards risk
In an increasingly fragmented world, the multilateral system is under severe strain and unable to take joint action to prevent or prepare for global risks.
Climate commitments are widely abandoned, accelerating the increase in global temperatures and leading to the collapse of major ice shelves, raising sea levels globally. Rising temperatures contribute to other natural hazards like droughts, heatwaves, and forest fires. These risks have negative cascading impacts, collapsing economic development in many regions and rapidly increasing global inequality and insecurity.
Extreme weather events contribute to widespread ecosystem and biodiversity loss. Fractured global cooperation prevents effective support to the most devastated communities.
Fractured global cooperation means that the mass movement of people is chaotic, increasing inequality within and between countries.
The breakdown in global cooperation impedes any knowledge sharing, data exchange, and cybersecurity collaboration across countries, which leaves most countries unable to act proactively to cascading risks.
As universally accepted science and data erode, common grounds for understanding diminish. Growing mistrust and scepticism create an environment where misinformation can be strategically deployed to manipulate public opinion and public policies.
Multilateral collaboration on climate risks continues to disintegrate, undermining confidence in international agreements and broader cooperation. Regions with high capacities adapt to climate changes, leveraging technological, military, regulatory, and legal means to safeguard their gains. Many countries with less capacity cannot adapt, fueling civil strife within and across borders. In this scenario, global inequalities and tensions increasingly amplify, leading to a total collapse of global cooperation and a dystopian future for much of the world.
Status Quo
Unchanged and uncoordinated
Mis- and Disinformation
The multilateral community has not adapted to the 21st century and joint action continues to follow the status quo, leaving it vulnerable to a wide range of risks.
The weakening structures of international cooperation disintegrate more rapidly when a convincing and sustained disinformation video campaign goes viral, depicting a country preparing for war against one of its allies. Global efforts to address complex, interconnected challenges remain hampered by slow and ineffective decision-making.
The rapid expansion in these sectors increases reliance on fossil fuels and the mining of rare earth materials, exacerbating natural resources scarcity, creating significant pollution and large-scale electronic waste.
As hopes for a mutually beneficial future dim, the world grapples with multifaceted challenges, including the deterioration of the global information environment. Increased distrust between countries and within societies erodes cohesion and increases vulnerability to global risks like pandemics and large-scale conflict.
Progress
Improved
New pandemic
The international community has learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and improved joint action across multilateral institutions and with the private sector.
When a new pandemic emerges, governments and international organizations coordinate their efforts to share information, vaccines, protective equipment, and risk management strategies, effectively mitigating the spread of the disease and its economic impact. The positive effects of successful international collaboration in a public health crisis result in progress across other areas.
Improved global cooperation helps extend these benefits to populations around the world, improving global outcomes. However, access to new technologies, demographic shifts, and inequality remain major hurdles, with most benefits accruing to those in wealthier countries.
The positive effects of these collaborations and funding platforms, including active private sector engagement, help decrease large-scale pollution and build more sustainable supply chains.
However, unequal progress undermines the broader benefits, maintaining disparities in access to reliable information and hindering collective understanding and action.
While improved joint action has strong positive benefits, especially in the climate and technology spaces, persistent inequalities limit the potential for truly inclusive progress. Sustained efforts are essential to ensure that progress is inclusive and reaches all communities worldwide.
Breakthrough
Strong and accelerating
Cybersecurity breakdown
The multilateral system has adapted to the challenges of the 21st century and joint action is stronger than before.
What could have been a catastrophic event – a sudden, global, cybersecurity breakdown plunging billions of people into digital darkness – is swiftly resolved within hours through rapid, coordinated action between nations and in cooperation with the private sector. The effective collaboration has significantly positive cascading impacts for sustainable development.
The state of advanced international collaboration ensures that the benefits of these breakthroughs in health, energy, agriculture, and education are experienced by all people, reducing global inequality and further increasing cybersecurity.
Concerted global efforts in biodiversity conservation and pollution control prevent habitat loss, fostering long-term ecosystem recovery.
Further evidence of the effectiveness of joint action, especially between governments and the private sector, has cascading positive effects for people and planet. A reinvigorated multilateral system sees an increase in legitimacy and trust, with specific benefit to collaboration on energy, health, education, and agriculture. While structural inequalities persist, progress is sustainable and effective global risk mitigation measures are firmly entrenched.
